The European elections are over, the polls have closed, but the counting is far from complete. Definitive results are expected in the coming days. Yet, even now, it is clear that this vote marks a turning point – one that goes far beyond the usual course of EU elections.
Early projections already reveal unprecedented trends and developments. Our Brussels bureau chief, Sabine Seeger-Regling—former European correspondent and recognized by Table Media as one of the Top 100 European Experts—shares her initial analysis of the election results:
- The shift to the right has not only social and political implications but also significant consequences for intra-European economic policy. What was previously limited to individual EU member states is now manifesting across the entire Union. Even radical positions no longer seem to deter voters. Far-right parties such as the AfD in Germany, the FPÖ in Austria, and the Rassemblement National in France have gained ground. According to early projections, the AfD has emerged as the second-strongest force in Germany, while Marine Le Pen’s party has become the leading political force in France. This places the EU—already facing unprecedented external threats—under internal pressure as well. For the first time in its history, right-wing and EU-skeptical parties could become powerful enough to influence the Union’s future direction. The exact alignment of these right-wing forces remains uncertain, but they will likely attempt to undermine the EU’s foundational consensus. Finding common solutions and pragmatic compromises will become more difficult, while national interests will take center stage. This will further fuel skepticism toward globalization and economic interconnectedness—posing challenges for German companies pursuing international expansion strategies. At the same time, the election results will impact national political landscapes across EU member states. French President Emmanuel Macron has already called for new elections in response to Le Pen’s landslide victory. Stability looks different.
- Despite the surge of the far-right, there remains a clear pro-European and democratic majority for the next legislative period. The Social Democrats, expected to hold only 134 seats, will lose influence, but together with the center-right European People’s Party (EPP), they will form a strong centrist bloc. The EPP is likely to remain the strongest force in the new Parliament, ensuring that the EU stays on course—pursuing integration-friendly policies while countering centrifugal forces.
- The biggest losers of this election are the Greens—especially Germany’s Green Party, which secured a historic 20.5% in 2019 but has now dropped to just 12%. In France, the Greens have also lost eight percentage points. Across Europe, many citizens evidently perceived Green policies as overly restrictive and paternalistic. Additionally, many business leaders and executives have voiced frustration over the extensive reporting requirements imposed by Green-driven climate and environmental legislation.
- Europe’s Liberals have fallen far short of expectations. While Germany’s FDP managed to maintain its 2019 result of 5%, the largest force within the liberal Renew Europe group—Emmanuel Macron’s Renaissance Party—secured only 15% of the vote, nearly ten percentage points less than in the previous election. Current projections suggest that the Liberals will hold just 87 of the 720 seats in the European Parliament, making it difficult for them to push through key policies such as a technology-neutral industrial strategy, innovation-driven digital policies, or balanced climate and environmental regulations. The FDP must now reconsider whether remaining in Germany’s governing coalition is still a viable strategy. While it has slightly distanced itself from the downward trend affecting the SPD and the Greens, the gains remain modest.
- As for European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen, securing a second term is anything but guaranteed—despite the EPP’s victory. The party is expected to win around 176 seats, but von der Leyen needs 361 of the 720 votes in Parliament to be re-elected. If she leans toward the right and seeks support from the conservative-nationalist ECR, she risks alienating the Social Democrats and Greens. If she builds a coalition with the center-left, she may struggle to deliver on her campaign promises—such as fostering a stronger economic focus and reducing bureaucracy.
